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PROJECTED ELECTRICITY COSTS CPV vs CURRENT - ESTIMATES ONLY
Based on 25kW array as per Emcore's CPV today presentation
Base line of 10W on a 1cm2 area
    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019  
Chip efficiency Cell Efficiency 39% 39% 45% 45% 48% 51% 54% 57% 60% 63% 66% 70% Link
Concentration Concentration 800 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 2250 2300 2300 2300 2300 2300  
Cell efficiency multiplication factor Cell efficiency from BL 1 100.00% 115.38% 115.38% 123.08% 130.77% 138.46% 146.15% 153.85% 161.54% 169.23% 179.49%  
Concentration multiplication factor Conc efficiency from BL 1 125.00% 156.25% 187.50% 218.75% 250.00% 281.25% 287.50% 287.50% 287.50% 287.50% 287.50%  
Using base line of 10W on a 1cm2 Watts per cell 10 12.50 18.03 21.63 26.92 32.69 38.94 42.02 44.23 46.44 48.65 51.60  
Efficiency factor cost from base line     80.00% 55.47% 46.22% 37.14% 30.59% 25.68% 23.80% 22.61% 21.53% 20.55% 19.38%  
Base line of 8c kWh Cost per Watt c/kWh 8 6.40 4.44 3.70 2.97 2.45 2.05 1.90 1.81 1.72 1.64 1.55 c/kWh
Projected retail cost of electricity Cost per Watt c/kWh 11.55 12.0929 12.66 13.26 13.88 14.53 15.21 15.93 16.68 17.46 18.28 19.14 Link
Cost saving as a % of CPV Baseline Cost improvements 1 80.00% 55.47% 46.22% 37.14% 30.59% 25.68% 23.80% 22.61% 21.53% 20.55% 19.38% Link
Projected retail cost CPV Cost per Watt c/kWh 20 16 11.09 9.24 7.43 6.12 5.14 4.76 4.52 4.31 4.11 3.88  
Apply same 4.7% inflation rate 4.7% inflation 25 20.94 16.75 11.61 9.68 7.78 6.41 5.38 4.98 4.73 4.51 4.30 c kW/h
 
Non-CPV  
Estimated Retail costs based on current electricity prices from all sources of available electricity - Source Solar America  
   
   
 
Projected cell Efficiency based on current, year 2010 projections and theoretical limitation of 70%
 
 
 
Projected Concentration availability based on IBM claim to 2300 suns. Unknown if greater concentration can be achieved. No data available.
 
 
Simple calculation model to determine theoretical output per 1cm2 of cell utilizing improved concentration and efficiency. Is not expected to be accurate.
 
 
Projected Levelized Cost of Energy using the figures as outlined in Emcore's presentation and theoretical limitations - Generation costs.
 
 
Theoretical cost of Electricity available to consumers if ALL electricity is supplied by Concentrated Photovoltaics